Environmental Modeling: The Future of Biodiversity in the UK Is Under Threat

A study involving KIT predicts significant losses among native animal and plant species

Mist covered valley with purple heather field and scattered bushes and trees. — A study shows that changes in climate and land use pose a severe threat to biodiversity in the UK.

Over the next two decades, climate and land‑use policies will determine whether numerous native bird, butterfly, and plant species in the UK will survive. A study by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, in which KIT is also involved, shows for the first time in detail how different climate and land‑use scenarios affect biodiversity. The researchers modeled how environmental changes affect the survival of species in regions as small as one square kilometer.

All Scenarios Predict Failing to Meet Biodiversity Targets

In the worst‑case scenario, characterized by heavy reliance on fossil fuels, intensive agriculture, and urbanization, more than 200 species could go extinct. Even with moderate warming, the researchers expect significant changes. None of the scenarios examined allows for the achievement of the UK’s biodiversity targets.

“We supported the analysis with land‑use and management data that we generated using the CRAFTY‑GB land‑use model,” says Dr. Calum Brown from the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research, KIT's Campus Alpin in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. The model provides realistic projections of future land‑use decisions and takes into account both climatic and socioeconomic factors. This comprehensive approach is rare in biodiversity modeling and central to the study, according to Brown.

Despite the alarming results, the researchers show that ambitious climate action, sustainable land management, and greater societal appreciation for nature can prevent substantial species loss.

swi, April 7, 2026